Land in Demand
Agriculture is the main driver of global land demand, while housing, infrastructure, biodiversity, and climate needs intensify pressure on it. Sustainable land use requires balancing these competing demands.
Land sustains life on Earth. It is a cornerstone of sustainable development and climate action. But significant land-use changes and competing demands reveal its physical limits and highlight the absence of secure land rights for Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
Land is fundamental to human survival and prosperity. It creates a sense of identity and provides the food, fibre, shelter and raw materials essential for our existence. Of Earth’s total surface area, roughly a fifth is habitable. Nearly half of this habitable land is dedicated to agriculture; the remainder primarily consists of forests, along with grasslands and shrublands. These areas provide vital ecosystem services, such as soil formation, water filtration, biodiversity preservation, and carbon sequestration.
Agriculture aside, human settlements and infrastructure currently occupy only one percent of the Earth’s habitable land. However, demands on land are likely to intensify as the global population approaches 10 billion. Accompanying this projected growth are increased demands for food, energy and natural resources, all of which drive enormous land changes. If the world remains on its current trajectory, by 2050 the land needed for agriculture alone will have to expand by an additional 600 million hectares. In addition, urbanisation will also lead to a substantial expansion of built-up urban areas and infrastructure. With more and more of the world’s population projected to live in cities, the land designated for urban settlements will need to almost double. Infrastructural and industrial development as a result of economic growth and improved living standards will continue to intensify demands on land.
These pressures have already had sobering consequences. Human activity has transformed over 70 percent of the Earth’s total land area so far. Cropland expansion and livestock grazing account for almost 90 percent of global deforestation. This widespread transformation of land contributes to unprecedented environmental degradation and climate change. Extreme weather events and other impacts of climate change accelerate land degradation by reducing soil quality, water resources and biodiversity. And yet, despite an annual loss of 12 million hectares of productive land to desertification and drought alone, the demand for land is not losing momentum.
Figure 1
Shrinking forests and grasslands
Over time, crops and grazing lands expanded significantly, spelling stiff competition for future land use.
Land is also the common thread that ties together global agendas, commitments and targets. Most of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intrinsically linked to land and its resources. For instance, SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) relies on land for agriculture, SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) requires land for renewable energy infrastructure, SDG 13 (Climate Action) leverages land for carbon sequestration and SDG 15 (Life on Land) emphasises the protection and restoration of terrestrial ecosystems. Similarly, states rely on land to meet their commitments under the three Rio Conventions on climate change, biological diversity and desertification. This overreliance on land creates a scenario in which the same areas of land must meet food, housing and energy demands, while also capturing carbon or conserving biodiversity.
Underlying these seemingly endless demands is an illusion of abundant, untapped land waiting to be utilised. But as humanity continues to stretch beyond our planetary boundaries, greater attention must be given to land’s physical limits. Unsustainable land use, combined with the high expectations placed on land to meet global development and sustainability goals, further cements this illusion.
Treating land as infinite has serious implications. First, building global sustainability, climate and environmental agendas on this false premise can jeopardise their success. Second, much of the land committed to these agendas is home to diverse ecosystems and human communities that depend on land and its resources for their livelihoods, health and cultural identity. However, community land rights are regularly violated as a direct result of growing land demands.
Figure 2
We depend on land
Competing land demands exert pressure on land and its resources; global goals can add to them. Commitments must reflect land’s physical limits.
Global commitments largely overlook the land rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, including both legal and customary rights to use, control and transfer land. For example, although land plays a critical role in sustainable development, only 3 of the 17 SDGs consider land rights. Similarly, the Paris Agreement on climate change lacks any reference to land rights even though land use and land-based measures are crucial for climate action. Consequently, decisions about land use often entail trade-offs that have far-reaching impacts on ecosystems and local communities. The lack of adequate recognition of land rights in global goals and commitments exacerbates these challenges, highlighting the need for more inclusive and responsible land governance.
The way land is treated and subsequently considered in global agreements will be critical to a sustainable future. In addition, equitable strategies must rest at their heart to ensure the recognition and respect for the rights of all land users and the limits of land, while fully considering land’s ecological, social and economic dimensions.
