Future Climate Pathways
Some Nationally Determined Contributions over-rely on land to remove emissions, implying a cumulative land demand of about 1 billion hectares.
Land use and land-use change are major drivers of climate change. Land also offers significant opportunities for climate change mitigation. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways project future developments of climate, society and land demand under different scenarios.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change plays a central role in shaping science-based targets and pathways. This includes the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework, which models future sce narios that assess the impacts of different socioeconomic choices, emissions trajectories and policy decisions on achieving global climate goals. The framework involves both qualitative narratives and quantitative models. The qualitative narratives outline broad societal trends across large regions, while the quantitative projections provide consistent assumptions about population, economic growth and technological change, which then feed into models of energy use, land use, emissions and other outcomes.
To create SSPs, projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations were linked to key socioeconomic indicators like population growth, GDP, technological progress and governance structures. This resulted in five distinct pathways that outline different futures for global society in the twenty-first century These pathways provide plausible and consistent sequences of events up to the year 2100, describing long-term economic developments, populations, human development, lifestyles, policies, institutions, technology, the environment and natural resources over the century.
The SSPs show a scale of outcomes (SSP1 to SSP5), ranging from a future where sustainability is highly prioritised on a global scale to one where it is unequally prioritised across regions or almost completely deprioritised. Each pathway faces different challenges to climate mitigation and adaptation. In the land-use sector, factors like agricultural needs, bioenergy demands, land-use change regulations and international cooperation all significantly influence the ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Figure 1
There's only one way
Global temperature depends on our commitment to development goals. SSP1 provides the only stable pathway to a future under 2 °C.
Each SSP includes carbon dioxide removal strategies, and in each pathway, land-based carbon sequestration plays a crucial role in restoring balance and achieving climate neutrality. The SSPs also demonstrate how the demands for agricultural land and bioenergy directly affect the extent of forest cover. Consider the different scenarios laid out in SSP1 to SSP5, which show how socioeconomic developments influence how land is allocated, regulated and protected.
SSP1 – Sustainability (Taking the Green Path): This scenario envisions a world that makes significant progress toward sustainability, inclusive development and respect for environmental limits. A combination of pricing land-use emissions, large-scale reforestation, reduction in agricultural croplands and pastures and ecosystem restoration leads to lower GHG emissions. It also promotes soil carbon sequestration and natural carbon sinks.
SSP2 – Middle of the Road: This sce nario represents a continuation of historical trends, with moderate progress in social, economic and technological development. Land-based mitigation actions are implemented gradually and moderately with balanced efforts in reforestation, afforestation, ecosystem restoration and soil carbon sequestration. However, a continued reliance on animal products increases croplands and pastures for livestock.
SSP3 – Regional Rivalry (A Rocky Road): This scenario describes a fragmented world characterised by nationalism, regional conflict and limited international cooperation, resulting in delayed implementation of climate change mitigation measures and high deforestation rates. A large increase in pasture and cropland, driven by limited agricultural intensification and population growth, leads to biodiversity and forest losses.
SSP4 – Inequality (A Road Divided): This scenario depicts a world characterised by deep inequalities within and between countries, with significant social stratification. Wealthy countries implement regulations that drive reforestation and ecosystem restoration, enhancing carbon sequestration. However, developing countries struggle to regulate land- use change due to a lack of re sources, capacity and investment, leading to deforestation and ecosystem degradation.
SSP5 – Fossil-Fuelled Development (Taking the Highway): This scenario envisions rapid economic growth driven by intensive fossil fuel use, resulting in high energy demands and a reliance on technological solutions to offset emissions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The land needed for large-scale bioenergy production as well as a high demand for it compete with land needed for food and feed production, creating land-use conflicts.
Figure 2
A lot more trees to limit global warming
Pathways that are in line with global climate goals demand significant land-use change, including a substantial expansion of forest area.
The SSPs show that land-based carbon sequestration is essential for climate neutrality and highlight the unsustainable pressures on land to both mitigate climate change and meet agricultural and bioenergy needs. Yet, as democratic spaces shrink and international cooperation falters, achieving global climate goals becomes increasingly difficult. Only the scenario envisioned in SSP1 enables society to limit global warming to below 2°C.