Europe Misses the Mark on its Climate Goals
Europe’s climate plan is projected to fall short of sequestering 100 million tonnes of CO₂, well below the intended 300 million tonnes target. Key measures to close the gap, such as rewetting peatlands, are not systematically supported by the Common Agricultural Policy.
The European Union aims to remove 310 million tonnes of CO₂e through land-based strategies by 2030, but this target is unlikely to be met. Member States may look beyond their borders, risking unsustainable practices and land grabs to bridge the gap.
European climate policy is guided by the European Climate Law, a legal directive for Member States for achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Its “Fit for 55” target aims to reduce carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. These ambitious goals have led to significant policy changes across sectors but warrant further scrutiny.
The European Union’s (EU) land use, landuse change and forestry (LULUCF) regulations are a critical part of the bloc’s plan to achieve climate neutrality. Originally created in 2018 and revised and expanded in 2023, the regulations include improved monitoring, reporting and verifications of removals and emissions, as well as a synergetic approach to climate mitigation and environmental protection. Crucially, the revised regulations increase the target for land-based carbon removal to 310 million tonnes of CO₂e per annum by 2030. However, the EU was found to be off track to meet the original LULUCF targets and will likely miss this 2030 target by at least 50 million tonnes.
The gap between ambition and reality is bound to affect policy. Many of the EU’s climate targets rely on land-based carbon removal through methods like ecosystem restoration, forest management and reversal of land degradation. At the same time, the fact that targets are not being met indicates that current land use and carbon removal strategies are insufficient, which could result in an intensification of land-based climate mitigation efforts. To that end, recent policy initiatives aim to incentivise sustainable land management practices that can restore Europe’s ecosystems and natural carbon sinks. The Nature Restoration Law aims to implement restoration projects such as habitat protection and adaptive land use practices to at least 20 percent of the EU’s lands and seas. The recently approved Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming Certification Regulation is another step to regulate and structure carbon removal in the EU based on three pillars: carbon farming (soil-based carbon sequestration and emission reduction), carbon storage in products and permanent removal.
Figure 1
The EU must protect its carbon sinks
The reform of the EU’s common agricultural policy is a key element in meeting the bloc’s climate targets.
The intensification of land-based climate mitigation efforts such as these may exacerbate already unsustainable land demands and negatively affect ecosystems and biodiversity. Further, they still seem insufficient to bridge the gap, as the EU continues to miss its climate targets. As a result, EU Member States may start to look outside their borders to meet their climate commitments, which could increase land pressures in regions where governance and environmental safeguards may be weaker.
Large EU companies are increasingly involved in climate-neutral initiatives, such as offsetting emissions from travel and packaging, and seek to prevent negative environmental impacts both in the areas where the company operates and where their business partners operate. However, these theoretically sustainable practices may be at odds with the intention of EU regulations and can have significant ramifications. Private companies like IKEA, for example, plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions up to 90 percent by 2050 but rely on significant contributions from carbon removals and storage. This includes buying over 20,000 hectares of land in New Zealand for monoculture plantations to sequester carbon at the expense of communities and biodiversity.
Energy policies also have the potential to contribute to unsustainable land-use practices. The REPowerEU plan aims to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels by diversifying energy imports and promoting renewable energy, including hydrogen. The REPowerEU plan advises Member States to engage in “a wide consultation process” and ensure broad ownership for energy projects. Yet, it fails to consider the extensive land impact energy imports such as hydrogen have outside the EU. For example, hydrogen production requires vast amounts of water: the International Energy Agency estimates that nine litres of water are used for every kilogram of green energy produced. In countries prone to droughts, diverting water supplies for hydrogen production could not only cause water scarcity for local populations, but also create a ripple effect on local land use and demand.
Figure 2
The EU's avenues towards net zero
Shifting majorities in the European parliament are likely to undermine further strategies towards net zero.
It is clear that shifting land-based carbon removal activities and energy demands to countries outside the EU could lead to increased land pressures, unsustainable practices and land grabs. The EU must ensure uniformly high standards of protection against the neocolonial exploitation of land and water and avoid depriving countries outside the EU of resources needed to meet domestic needs. To avoid burden-shifting and increasing pressure on land elsewhere, the EU must tackle the root causes of emissions within its own borders.
The EU has previously supported the “one credit, one claim” approach in international negotiations under the Paris Agreement Article 6.4. Its apparent abandonment of this in domestic policy could significantly impact future discussions on international carbon credit project rules.